Bookmakers made Masamichi Yabuki a strong favorite against Felix Alvarado when they square off in their contest on Saturday 27th December 2025 at Aichi Sky Expo, Tokoname, Japan.
He is currently 2/7 (-340) to win the contest outright, while you can get 5/2 (+250) on Felix Alvarado if you fancy the upset.
That means that oddsmakers think there is 74% chance of Yabuki winning while giving Alvarado a 26% chance.
Yabuki opened as the favorite at 2/7 (-340).
Alvarado opened at 5/2 (+250).
The fight is scheduled for 12 rounds in the Flyweight division, which means both fighters will have to make the weight limit of 112 pounds (7.84 stones or 50.91 kg) on the day of the weigh-in.
This contest is for the IBF flyweight championship of the world.
Yabuki vs Alvarado Head To Head
Masamichi Yabuki steps into the ring with a record of 18 wins, 4 losses, and 0 draws, 17 of those wins coming by way of knockout.
Felix Alvarado will make his way to the ring with a record of 42 wins, 4 losses and 0 draws, with 35 of those wins by knockout.
The stats suggest Yabuki has an advantage in power over Alvarado, with a 94% knockout percentage compared to Alvarado's 83%.
Masamichi Yabuki is the younger man by 3 years, at 33 years old.
Yabuki has a height advantage of 1 inch over Alvarado. Despite this, Alvarado has a 3-inch reach advantage.
Both Masamichi Yabuki and Felix Alvarado fight out of an orthodox stance.
Yabuki is the less experienced professional fighter, having had 24 fewer fights, and made his debut in 2016, 6 years later than Alvarado, whose first professional fight was in 2010. He has fought 96 fewer professional rounds, totaling 104 compared to Alvarado's 200.
Masamichi Yabuki goes into the fight ranked number 4 by The Ring at flyweight.
Felix Alvarado is currently ranked number 1 by the IBF, and 8 by The Ring in the 112lb division.
Yabuki vs Alvarado betting form
Yabuki has beaten 4 of his last 5 opponents, stopping 3 of them, going the distance once.
In his last fight, he won against Angel Ayala Lardizabal on March 29, 2025, by technical knockout in the 12th round in their IBF World Flyweight championship fight at Aichi Sky Expo, Nagoya, Japan. He was a 2/3 (-150) favorite going into the ring.
Prior to that, he had won against Sivenathi Nontshinga on October 12, 2024, by technical knockout in the 9th round in their IBF World Junior Flyweight championship fight at Aichi Sky Expo, Tokoname. He was a 5/4 (+130) underdog going into the ring.
Going into that contest, he had been beaten by Kenshiro Teraji on March 19, 2022, by technical knockout in the 3rd round in their WBC World Light Flyweight championship fight at City Gym, Kyoto.
Before that, he had beaten Kenshiro Teraji on September 22, 2021, by technical knockout in the 10th round in their WBC World Light Flyweight championship fight at City Gym, Kyoto.
He had defeated Toshimasa Ouchi on December 26, 2020, by unanimous decision in their 10 round contest at Aioi Hall, Aichi.
Alvarado has beaten 3 of his last 5 opponents, stopping 2 of them, going the distance once.
In his last fight, he won against Tobias Jeremias Reyes on December 27, 2024, by majority decision in their IBF World Flyweight eliminator fight in Nicaragua.
Prior to that, he had lost to Angel Ayala Lardizabal on October 14, 2023, by unanimous decision in their IBF World Flyweight championship fight at Poliforum Zamna, Mérida, Mexico. He was a 9/4 (+230) underdog going into the contest.
Going into that contest, he had been beaten by Sunny Edwards on November 11, 2022, by unanimous decision in their IBF World Flyweight championship fight at Utilita Arena, Sheffield, United Kingdom.
Before that, he had won against Luis Cerrito Hernandez on May 21, 2022, by knockout in the 4th round at Polideportivo Alexis Arguello, Managua, Nicaragua.
He had defeated Israel Vazquez on August 14, 2021, by technical knockout in the 1st round at The Ford Center at The Star, Texas, United States.
Who's been more active?
If you think ring rust and activity is a big factor in this fight, Felix Alvarado has been fighting more than Masamichi Yabuki.
Masamichi Yabuki last fought 8 months and 28 days ago, while Felix Alvarado's last outing was 1 year ago.
Yabuki's last 5 fights have come over a period of 5 years and 1 day, which means he has been fighting approximately every 1 year. In those fights, he fought a total of 44 rounds, meaning that they have lasted 8.8 rounds on average.
Alvarado's last 5 fights have come over a period of 4 years, 4 months and 13 days, meaning he has been fighting on average every 10 months and 15 days. In those fights, he fought a total of 41 rounds, meaning that they have lasted 8.2 rounds on average.
What’s the Latest Time I Can Bet on Yabuki vs Alvarado Pre Fight?
The fighters are expected to ringwalk at around 11:00 AM UTC at Aichi Sky Expo, Tokoname, Japan, which is 6:00 AM EST or 3:00 AM PST on the West Coast of America, or 11:00 AM GMT in the UK.
