Bookmakers made Canelo Alvarez a strong favorite against Christian Mbilli when they meet in their bout on Saturday 12th September 2026 at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
He is currently 1/3 (-300) to win the bout outright, while you can get 9/4 (+230) on Christian Mbilli if you fancy the upset.
That means that oddsmakers think there is 71% chance of Canelo winning while giving Mbilli a 29% chance.
Canelo opened as the favorite at 1/3 (-300).
Mbilli opened at 9/4 (+230).
The fight is scheduled for 12 rounds in the Super Middleweight division, which means both fighters will have to make the weight limit of 168 pounds (11.76 stones or 76.36 kg) on the day of the weigh-in.
This contest is for the WBC super middleweight championship of the world.
Canelo vs Mbilli Head To Head
Canelo Alvarez steps into the ring with a record of 63 wins, 3 losses, and 2 draws, 39 of those wins coming by way of knockout.
Christian Mbilli will make his way to the ring with an unblemished record of 29 wins and 1 draw, with 24 of those by knockout.
The stats suggest Mbilli has a large advantage in power over Canelo, boasting a 83% knockout percentage compared to Canelo's 62%.
Canelo Alvarez is the older man by 4 years, at 35 years old.
Mbilli has a 2-inch reach advantage.
Both Canelo Alvarez and Christian Mbilli fight out of an orthodox stance.
Canelo is the more experienced professional fighter, having had 38 more fights, and made his debut in 2005, 11 years and 3 months earlier than Mbilli, whose first professional fight was in 2017. He has fought 389 more professional rounds, totaling 532 compared to Mbilli's 143.
Canelo Alvarez goes into the fight ranked number 2 by the WBA, 1 by the WBC, 1 by the WBO, 3 by the IBF, and 1 by The Ring at super middleweight.
Christian Mbilli is currently ranked number 3 by The Ring in the 168lb division.
Canelo vs Mbilli betting form
Canelo Alvarez has beaten 4 of his last 5 opponents.
In his last fight, he lost to Terence Crawford on September 13, 2025, by unanimous decision in their The Ring Super Middleweight, WBC World Super Middleweight, WBA Super World Super Middleweight and IBF World Super Middleweight championship fight at Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, United States. He was a 3/5 (-170) favorite going into the ring.
Prior to that, he had won against William Scull on May 3, 2025, by unanimous decision in their IBF World Super Middleweight, WBC World Super Middleweight, WBO World Super Middleweight and WBA Super World Super Middleweight championship fight at The Venue, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He was a 1/25 (-2500) favorite going into the ring.
Going into that contest, he had beaten Edgar Berlanga on September 14, 2024, by unanimous decision in their WBO World Super Middleweight, WBC World Super Middleweight, WBA Super World Super Middleweight and The Ring Super Middleweight championship fight at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, United States. He was a 1/16 (-1700) favorite going into the ring.
Before that, he had defeated Jaime Munguia on May 4, 2024, by unanimous decision in their WBC World Super Middleweight, WBA Super World Super Middleweight, IBF World Super Middleweight and WBO World Super Middleweight championship fight at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. He was a 1/6 (-590) favorite going into the ring.
He had won against Jermell Charlo on September 30, 2023, by unanimous decision in their IBF World Super Middleweight, WBA Super World Super Middleweight, WBC World Super Middleweight and WBO World Super Middleweight championship fight at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. He was a 1/4 (-400) favorite going into the ring.
Mbilli remains undefeated as a professional, stopping 3 of his last 5 opponents.
In his last fight, he drew Lester Martinez on September 13, 2025, by split draw in their 10 round contest at Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, United States.
Prior to that, he had defeated Maciej Sulecki on June 27, 2025, by technical knockout in the 1st round in their WBC Interim World Super Middleweight championship fight at Centre Videotron, Quebec City, Canada.
Going into that contest, he had beaten Sergiy Derevyanchenko on August 17, 2024, by unanimous decision in their 10 round contest at Centre Videotron, Quebec City. He was a 13/100 (-670) favorite going into the contest.
Before that, he had won against Mark Heffron on May 25, 2024, by knockout in the 1st round at Gervais Auto Center, Shawinigan. He was a 1/25 (-2500) favorite going into the contest.
He had beaten Rohan Murdock on January 13, 2024, by technical knockout in the 6th round at Centre Videotron, Quebec City. He was a 1/12 (-1200) favorite going into the contest.
Who's been more active?
If you think ring rust and activity is a big factor in this fight, Christian Mbilli has been fighting more than Canelo Alvarez.
Canelo Alvarez last fought 11 months and 30 days ago, while Christian Mbilli's last outing was 11 months and 30 days ago.
Canelo's last 5 fights have come over a period of 2 years, 11 months and 13 days, which means he has been fighting approximately every 7 months and 3 days. In those fights, he fought a total of 60 rounds, meaning that they have lasted 12 rounds on average.
Mbilli's last 5 fights have come over a period of 2 years, 7 months and 30 days, meaning he has been fighting on average every 6 months and 13 days. In those fights, he fought a total of 28 rounds, meaning that they have lasted 5.6 rounds on average.
What’s the Latest Time I Can Bet on Canelo vs Mbilli Pre Fight?
The fighters are expected to ringwalk at around 3:00 AM UTC at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which is 11:00 PM EST or 8:00 PM PST on the West Coast of America, or 4:00 AM BST in the UK.
Where Can I Watch Canelo vs Mbilli for In-Play Betting?
Canelo vs Mbilli will be broadcast on DAZN PPV in both the United States and the UK.
