Bookmakers made Sebastian Fundora a big favorite against Keith Thurman when they meet in their bout on Saturday 25th October 2025 at MGM Grand, Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, United States.
He is currently 2/9 (-450) to win the bout outright, while you can get 10/3 (+330) on Keith Thurman if you fancy the big upset.
That means that oddsmakers think there is 79% chance of Fundora winning while giving Thurman a 21% chance.
Fundora opened as the favorite at 2/9 (-450).
Thurman opened at 10/3 (+330).
The fight is scheduled for 12 rounds in the Super Welterweight division, which means both fighters will have to make the weight limit of 154 pounds (10.78 stones or 70 kg) on the day of the weigh-in.
This contest is for the WBC super welterweight championship of the world.
Fundora vs Thurman Head To Head
Sebastian Fundora steps into the ring with a record of 23 wins, 1 loss, and 1 draw, 15 of those wins coming by way of knockout.
Keith Thurman will make his way to the ring with a record of 31 wins, 1 loss and 0 draws, with 23 of those wins by knockout.
The stats suggest Thurman has a slight advantage in power over Fundora, with a 74% knockout percentage compared to Fundora's 65%.
Sebastian Fundora is the younger man by 9 years, at 27 years old.
Fundora has a height advantage of 11 inches over Thurman. This also extends to a 11-inch reach advantage.
Sebastian Fundora fights out of the southpaw stance, while Keith Thurman is an orthodox fighter.
Fundora is the less experienced professional fighter, having had 7 fewer fights, and made his debut in 2016, 8 years and 10 months later than Thurman, whose first professional fight was in 2007. He has fought 36 fewer professional rounds, totaling 139 compared to Thurman's 175.
Sebastian Fundora goes into the fight ranked number 2 by The Ring at super welterweight.
Keith Thurman is currently ranked number 8 by the WBC, and 7 by the WBO in the 154lb division.
Fundora vs Thurman betting form
Fundora has beaten 4 of his last 5 opponents, stopping 1 of them, going the distance 3 times.
In his last fight, he beat Tim Tszyu on July 19, 2025, by in the 7th round at MGM Grand, Las Vegas, United States. He was a 6/5 (+110) underdog going into the contest.
Prior to that, he had beaten Chordale Booker on March 22, 2025, by technical knockout in the 4th round in their WBC World Super Welterweight and WBO World Junior Middleweight championship fight at Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas. He was a 1/14 (-1400) favorite going into the contest.
Going into that contest, he had won against Tim Tszyu on March 30, 2024, by split decision in their WBO World Junior Middleweight and WBC World Super Welterweight championship fight at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. He was a 4/1 (+400) underdog going into the contest.
Before that, he had been beaten by Brian Mendoza on April 8, 2023, by knockout in the 7th round in their WBC Interim World Light Middleweight championship fight at Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson. He was a 1/10 (-1000) favorite going into the contest.
He had beaten Carlos Ocampo on October 8, 2022, by unanimous decision in their 12 round contest at Home Depot Center, Carson.
Thurman has beaten 4 of his last 5 opponents, stopping 1 of them, going the distance 3 times.
In his last fight, he defeated Brock Jarvis on March 12, 2025, by technical knockout in the 3rd round at Hordern Pavilion, Sydney, Australia. He was a 1/3 (-300) favorite going into the fight.
Prior to that, he had defeated Mario Barrios on February 5, 2022, by unanimous decision in their WBC World Welterweight eliminator fight at Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, United States. He was a 53/100 (-190) favorite going into the fight.
Going into that contest, he had lost to Manny Pacquiao on July 20, 2019, by split decision in their WBA Super World Welterweight championship fight at MGM Grand, Las Vegas. He was a 5/4 (+130) underdog going into the fight.
Before that, he had won against Josesito Lopez on January 26, 2019, by majority decision in their WBA Super World Welterweight championship fight at Barclays Center, New York. He was a 3/100 (-3300) favorite going into the fight.
He had defeated Danny Garcia on March 4, 2017, by split decision in their WBC World Welterweight and WBA World Welterweight championship fight at Barclays Center, New York. He was a 43/100 (-230) favorite going into the fight.
Who's been more active?
If you think ring rust and activity is a big factor in this fight, Sebastian Fundora has been fighting more than Keith Thurman.
Sebastian Fundora last fought 3 months and 6 days ago, while Keith Thurman's last outing was 7 months and 13 days ago.
Fundora's last 5 fights have come over a period of 3 years and 17 days, which means he has been fighting approximately every 7 months and 10 days. In those fights, he fought a total of 42 rounds, meaning that they have lasted 8.4 rounds on average.
Thurman's last 5 fights have come over a period of 8 years, 7 months and 21 days, meaning he has been fighting on average every 1 year, 8 months and 23 days. In those fights, he fought a total of 51 rounds, meaning that they have lasted 10.2 rounds on average.
What’s the Latest Time I Can Bet on Fundora vs Thurman Pre Fight?
The fighters are expected to ringwalk at around 11:00 PM EST / 8:00 PM PST at MGM Grand, Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, United States, which is around 3:00 AM GMT in the UK.
Where Can I Watch Fundora vs Thurman for In-Play Betting?
The Amazon Prime PPV show is expected to begin at 8:00 PM EST / 5:00 PM PST. The Amazon Prime PPV broadcast of the card is expected to start at 1:00 AM (BST).
