Bookmakers made Naoya Inoue a massive favorite against Alan Picasso when they meet in their bout on Saturday 27th December 2025 at Mohammed Abdo Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
He is currently 1/50 (-5000) to win the bout outright, while you can get 13/1 (+1300) on Alan Picasso if you fancy the massive upset.
That means that oddsmakers think there is 94% chance of Inoue winning while giving Picasso a 6% chance.
Inoue opened as the favorite at 1/50 (-5000).
Picasso opened at 13/1 (+1300).
The fight is scheduled for 12 rounds in the Super Bantamweight division, which means both fighters will have to make the weight limit of 122 pounds (8.54 stones or 55.45 kg) on the day of the weigh-in.
This contest is for the undisputed super bantamweight championship of the world, with the IBF, WBC, WBO, and WBA belts on the line.
Inoue vs Picasso Head To Head
Naoya Inoue steps into the ring with an undefeated record of 31 wins, zero losses, and 0 draws, 27 of those wins coming by way of knockout.
Alan Picasso will make his way to the ring with an unblemished record of 32 wins and 1 draw, with 17 of those by knockout.
The stats suggest Inoue has a massive power advantage over Picasso, boasting a 87% knockout percentage compared to Picasso's 53%.
Naoya Inoue is the older man by 7 years, at 32 years old.
Picasso has a height advantage of 3 inches over Inoue. This also extends to a 2-inch reach advantage.
Both Naoya Inoue and Alan Picasso fight out of an orthodox stance.
Inoue is arguably the more experienced fighter, having had 2 fewer fights, and made his debut in 2012, 4 years and 5 months earlier than Picasso, whose first professional fight was in 2017. He has fought 8 more professional rounds, totaling 193 compared to Picasso's 185.
Alan Picasso is currently ranked number 1 by the WBC, 7 by the WBO, and 5 by The Ring in the 122lb division.
Inoue vs Picasso betting form
Inoue remains undefeated as a professional, stopping 4 of his last 5 opponents.
In his last fight, he won against Murodjon Akhmadaliev on September 14, 2025, by unanimous decision in their The Ring Junior Featherweight, WBO World Junior Featherweight, IBF World Junior Featherweight and WBC World Super Bantamweight championship fight at IG Arena, Nagoya, Japan. He was a 1/10 (-1000) favorite going into the ring.
Prior to that, he had won against Ramon Cardenas on May 4, 2025, by technical knockout in the 8th round in their WBO World Junior Featherweight, IBF World Junior Featherweight, WBC World Super Bantamweight and WBA Super World Super Bantamweight championship fight at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, United States. He was a 1/40 (-3300) favorite going into the ring.
Going into that contest, he had beaten Ye Joon Kim on January 24, 2025, by knockout in the 4th round in their IBF World Junior Featherweight, WBC World Super Bantamweight, WBO World Junior Featherweight and WBA Super World Super Bantamweight championship fight at Ariake Arena, Tokyo, Japan. He was a 1/100 (-10000) favorite going into the ring.
Before that, he had defeated TJ Doheny on September 3, 2024, by technical knockout in the 7th round in their IBF World Junior Featherweight, WBA Super World Super Bantamweight, WBC World Super Bantamweight and WBO World Junior Featherweight championship fight at Ariake Arena, Koto-Ku. He was a 1/100 (-10000) favorite going into the ring.
He had won against Luis Nery on May 6, 2024, by knockout in the 6th round in their IBF World Junior Featherweight, WBA Super World Super Bantamweight, WBC World Super Bantamweight and WBO World Junior Featherweight championship fight at Tokyo Dome, Tokyo. He was a 1/18 (-1700) favorite going into the ring.
Picasso remains undefeated as a professional, stopping 2 of his last 5 opponents.
In his last fight, he defeated Kyonosuke Kameda on July 19, 2025, by majority decision in their 10 round contest at MGM Grand, Las Vegas, United States. He was a 1/14 (-1400) favorite going into the contest.
Prior to that, he had defeated Yehison Cuello on December 14, 2024, by knockout in the 3rd round at Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico.
Going into that contest, he had beaten Azat Hovhannisyan on August 24, 2024, by unanimous decision in their WBC World Super Bantamweight championship fight at Arena Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico City. He was a 7/50 (-710) favorite going into the contest.
Before that, he had won against Erik Ruiz on January 27, 2024, by unanimous decision in their 10 round contest at Footprint Center, Phoenix, United States.
He had beaten Sabelo Ngebinyana on July 15, 2023, by technical knockout in the 6th round in their WBC World Super Bantamweight eliminator fight at Mexico City, Mexico. He was a 1/10 (-1000) favorite going into the contest.
Who's been more active?
If you think ring rust and activity is a big factor in this fight, Naoya Inoue has been fighting more than Alan Picasso.
Naoya Inoue last fought 3 months and 13 days ago, while Alan Picasso's last outing was 5 months and 8 days ago.
Inoue's last 5 fights have come over a period of 1 year, 7 months and 21 days, which means he has been fighting approximately every 4 months. In those fights, he fought a total of 37 rounds, meaning that they have lasted 7.4 rounds on average.
Picasso's last 5 fights have come over a period of 2 years, 5 months and 12 days, meaning he has been fighting on average every 5 months and 28 days. In those fights, he fought a total of 41 rounds, meaning that they have lasted 8.2 rounds on average.
What’s the Latest Time I Can Bet on Inoue vs Picasso Pre Fight?
The fighters are expected to ringwalk at around 10:00 PM UTC at Mohammed Abdo Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which is 5:00 PM EST or 2:00 PM PST on the West Coast of America, or 10:00 PM GMT in the UK.
Where Can I Watch Inoue vs Picasso for In-Play Betting?
Inoue vs Picasso will be broadcast on DAZN in both the United States and the UK.
